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The “Report on National Security Implications of Climate-Related Risks and a Changing Climate” was provided to Congress yesterday. Climate Change and the National Defense Authorization Act (FY18-FY20), June 2020; Climate Change Implications for U.S. Military Aircraft, August 2019; The U.S. Department of Defense’s Forthcoming Climate Change Vulnerability Report: What to Expect and How Congress Should Use It, November 2018 “Trump Budget Boosts Nuclear Efforts,” Arms Control Today, April 2019. https:// www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-04/news/trump-budget-boosts-nuclear-efforts, 20 Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller) “Defense Budget Overview: United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2020 Budget Request” Department of Defense, March 2019. https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2020/fy2020_Budget_Request_ Overview_Book..pdf, 21 Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, “Reports on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense” Department of Defense, January 2019. https://www. An example for reprogramming would include procuring new weatherproof covers for fighting vehicles that have been shown to be vulnerable. 28 U.S. Coast Guard, “Timeline of Coast Guard Organizational History” United States Department of Homeland Security. frequency of intense storms in the future). GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS Carolyn Pumphrey Editor May 2008 This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Looking forward 20 years, the proliferation of extreme weather events will lead to systemic changes such as a rise in sea levels. As the President has made very clear, no challenge poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change, as we are already seeing these threats in communities across the country. “The many ways climate change worsens California wildfires,” Yale Climate Connections, November 13, 2018. https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/11/the-many-ways-climate-change-worsens-california-wildfires/, 16 “Why is Climate Change Costing the Air Force Billions,” PBS, April 2019. https://www.pbs.org/ wnet/peril-and-promise/2019/04/why-is-climate-change-costing-the-air-force-billions/, 17 Miller, James N. and Michael O’Hanlon, “Quality Over Quantity: U.S. Military Strategy and Spending in the Trump Years,” Brookings Institute, January 2019. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/FP_20190103_military_strategy_spending.pdf, 18 Ratnam, Gopal and Kate Brannen, “Against Other Threats, Obama’s Security Budget Sticks to Asia- Pacific Pivot,” Foreign Policy, February 2, 2015. https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/02/793982budget-asia-pacific-syria-iraq-russia-ukraine/, 19 Reif, Kingston. A 2016 report summarized six possible ways in which climate change would impact national security: threats to the stability of countries, heightened social and political tensions, adverse effects on food prices and availability, increased risks to human health, negative impacts on investments and economic competitiveness, and potential climate discontinuities and secondary surprises.8 Even more concerning, though, is the ongoing upward trend in extreme weather events which are likely to spur these long-term climate-related disruptions. Climate change and its resulting effects are likely to pose wide-ranging national security challenges for the United States and other countries over the next 20 years through the following pathways:  Threats to the stability of countries. This includes the increased use of military forces for domestic response, building resilience of defense infrastructure, and the corresponding impacts on training and readiness. Climate changes uniquely affects U.S. Northern Command, whose mission is protecting the homeland, and in particular Alaska and other northern territories, from potential state actors seeking to spy on, invade, or disrupt the United States.29 Given their aspirations in the Arctic, Russia and China are the obvious regional competitors. 2500, 116th Cong. For nearly a decade, Dr. Schoonover has analyzed impacts of issues at the intersection of science and national security; in particular the national security implications of climate change, global ecological change, water and food security, and emergent and disruptive technologies. Learn about the impact and consequences of climate change and global warming for the environment and our lives. Strategically and operationally, this affects both our ally’s and adversary’s behavior leading to the open-ended question—what does it mean if the Department of Defense (DoD) adopts a posture that focuses on the strategic implications of climate change? There are many resources available that describe the implications of climate change. The “New Era” 1991 national security strategy of President George H.W. The papers in this volume span a suite of climate change repercussions, paying particular attention to national security and human health aspects. reed.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Sec%20335%20RTC%20on%20Effects%20of%20a%20Changing%20 Climate%20to%20DOD2.pdf, 14 Filho, Francisco and Carl Mercer, “Small Island nations at the frontline of climate action,” United Nations Development Programme, September 18, 2017. https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/ news-centre/news/2017/09/18/small-island-nations-at-the-frontline-of-climate-action-.html, 15 Nuccitelli, Dana. © Copyright 2018, Journal of International Affairs. (November 12, 2018) As the President has made very clear, no challenge poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change, as we are already seeing these threats in communities across the country. THE NATIONAL SECURITY IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE December 2017 In its 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) officially recognized climate change as a factor worthy of consideration in future national security planning. In the fiscal year 2020 the figure requested rose $8.8 billion.20 This lack of consistency in recent years is indicative of infrastructure’s low priority at the Pentagon. U.S. National Security. In terms of the Arctic, the Coast Guard hangs its hat on ‘upholding sovereignty’ as the central component of its arctic vision.23, China and Russia have both identified the Arctic as a strategic priority, and have consequently invested in their capabilities and capacities to exert influence.24 China’s extraterritorial claims, mobilization of synthetic islands, and its economic interests in controlling access to trade routes and resources may all contribute to future confrontation.25 Recognizing the reality of global warming, China is developing its Polar Silk Road with a strengthened policy towards the Arctic region.26 Russia, meanwhile, has established its Arctic Command, the Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command, stationing surface-to-air missile capabilities in the region and improving or creating from scratch multiple deep-water ports and airfields to project power in the region.27. Strategically and operationally, this affects both our ally’s and adversary’s behavior leading to the open-ended question—what does it mean if the Department of Defense (DoD) adopts a posture that focuses on the strategic implications of climate change? His research focuses on critical theoretical approaches to security and their application to environmental change, Australian security policy, climate politics, and security dynamics in Asia and the Pacific. When considering natural or environmental conditions such as climate change, however, threats must be understood from a wholistic perspective: any factor that has the capacity and ability to impede a state’s objective may be threatening, regardless of intent. In 2008, the National Intelligence Council conducted a classified National Intelligence Assessment on the security implications of global climate change to 2030. This document summarizes the intelligence community’s estimate of both current and future conflicts as they evolve around the globe. Climate Events and National Security Outcomes. The accelerating rate of decline in Arctic sea ice, which has now reached 12.8 percent over each decade relative to the 1981-2010 average, has enabled more military and economic activity in the region.1 In order to better understand the national security implications of climate change, three topics must be explored: (1) the changing definition of threats; (2) budget prescription and flexibility, and; (3) developing new approaches towards a changing Arctic. The National Security Implications of Climate Change: Redefining Threats, Bolstering Budgets, and Mobilizing the Arctic, How the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Impacts the United States, and Why the United States Must Embrace its Entry into Force, The Rule of Law Report: A story of preemption, political symbolism, and dialogue in the European Union, Strategic Demilitarization in Sri Lanka: Paradoxes and Trajectories, Standing Rock Protests and the Struggle for Tribal Sovereignty. The White House also released a new report on the national security implications of climate change and how the Federal government is rising to the challenge. This consensus study assessed the national security implications of climate change for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. Naval Forces The leaders of the U.S. Navy, Coast Guard, and Marine Corps have recognized the potential impact of climate change on naval forces' missions and have positioned their organizations to make adaptive changes. Since 1991, during each presidential administration climate change has been mentioned in the national security strategy, and in most cases directly addressed. While climate scientists have been aware of the effect of carbon emissions on average worldwide temperatures for several decades, the 2010s have seen consecutive hottest years on record, along with storms, droughts and wildfires of intensifying power and destructiveness. Climate change was first publicly recognized as a major concern for the Pentagon in May 1990, when the U.S. Bush noted, “global environmental concerns include such diverse but interrelated issues as stratospheric ozone depletion, climate change, food security, water supply, deforestation, biodiversity and treatment of waste. (2019).ht tps: / /www.cong res s .gov/ bi l l /116th- cong res s / house-bi l l /2500/ t e x t#toc - H42DC506687994015B0371FF0D6C134B2. Submissions to this inquiry close on 4 August 2017. Without this perspective, proper budgeting for threats on the scale of global climate disruption, in turn, does not occur. “Russia is Testing Nuclear Weapons at Remote Artic Bases, Despite Global Ban, U.S. Says,” Newsweek, May 30, 2019. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-nuclear-weapons-testing-arctic-us-claims-low-yield-ban-1439109, 31 Houghton, Vince, “The U.S. 2 February 2017. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017/february/shift-coast-guard-dod. The second volume of the Fourth National Climate Assessment was released by the White House last Friday. Some present information on historically observed changes (e.g., temperature, precipitation) while others project changes into the future based on alternative scenarios (e.g. Climate change is a direct threat to the national security of the United States and is impacting the stability in areas of the world both where the United States Armed Forces are operating today, and where strategic implications for future conflict exists. (April 8, 2019). National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Indeed, both the congressionally-mandated 2018 National Climate Assessment (NCA) and United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports make clear that … Acknowledgement of these three tasks in the 2020 publication of the national security strategy is essential to demonstrate America’s readiness to address not only traditional state actors in a multi-polar world, but also redefined threats such as the environment that are no less concerning. National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, CNA Corporation, Alexandria, Va. 2Testimony of ADM Joseph Prueher, USN (Ret. At the national level, UN Environment will develop and deploy a state-of-the-art methodology to help stakeholders map and prioritize climate change and security hotspots. It is an outcome of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop held during April 28-30, 2011 in Dubrovnik, Croatia, sponsored by the NATO Science for Peace and Security Program. CCS is a nonpartisan research institute of the Council of Strategic Risks that supports policies that will best manage the effects of climate change on security. Climate change was first publicly recognized as a major concern for the Pentagon in May 1990, when the U.S. The Security Council debate on 17 April was a … The traditional definition of a threat is a combination of two factors: a rival actor’s capability and intent.3 Yet, this construct is only valid and applicable for modeling the behavior of traditional actors, such as states. The current reprogramming caps are at $10 million for military personnel, $20 million for operation and maintenance, $20 million for procurement, and $10 million for research, development, test, and evaluation.37 These caps should be adjusted to a much higher level if the policy is to counter a clear and recognized danger, such as climate change. The Plan Blew Up in Their Faces,” Time, May 7, 2019. https://time.com/5585149/arctic-nuclear-history/, 32 Sergeev, Lev and Maxim Shemetov, “Russia’s first seaborne nuclear powerplant sets sail across Arctic,” Reuters, August 23, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-nuclear-floating-plant/ russias-first-seaborne-nuclear-power-plant-sets-sail-across-arctic-idUSKCN1VD164, 33 United States. Climate change threatens not only military material, but also training areas and infrastructure. The assessment judged that global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national security. While the current defense budget is nominally intended to modernize the force, it does not adequately address the threat of climate change on equipment even though it upgrades unit-by-unit readiness and increases force size and structure.17 Budgets, by their nature, signal the priorities of an administration. 90-105, 4 Sisk, Richard. A forward presence is required by the Coast Guard to uphold sovereignty. The United States continues to be involved in myriad international conflicts: military operations in the Yemen; trade policy jousting with China; and an increasingly consequential Arctic becoming a new arena among Great Power competitors. Greater displays of partnership with the Nordic countries are essential to compete against adversaries. Some present information on historically observed changes (e.g., temperature, precipitation) while others project changes into the future based on alternative scenarios (e.g. One question to consider is whether the Coast Guard is granted authority and support to operate under the Department of Defense due to Title X in order to bolster American capabilities in the region. Additional benefits of such reconfiguration would be a more central command authority, more robust resources and budget, and flexibility in law enforcement responses. Climate change will be the defining test of global civilization in the twenty-first century. THE NATIONAL SECURITY IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE December 2017 In its 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) officially recognized climate change as a factor worthy of consideration in future national security planning. Washington, DC – On Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 8:30 am, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence will convene an open hearing about the national security implications of climate change. Under this broader construct of threat, non-state actors, such as climate, economic volatility, or even nationalist political trends present a threat to the United States. This conference explores the national security and economic implications of climate change on the current and future security landscape. Climate change heightens national security threats for states, and in particular, changes the calculus for the world’s superpower, the United States. [Washington]: President of the U.S https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf, 35 United States. Our defense, and the defense of countries around the world, is built within the context of a stable climate. (2017).https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/2500/text#toc-H42DC506687994015B0371FF0D6C134B2, 6 Sterman, David. The White House also released a new report on the national security implications of climate change and how the Federal government is rising to the challenge. Beginning in 2006, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has submitted to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence the Worldwide Threat Assessment. “Shift the Coast Guard to DoD,” Proceedings, 143, No. 5 Typically, national security threats are understood as competitive state actors with varying capacities that may span conventional, nuclear, and cyber domains, as well as non-state actors, which may adopt asymmetric strategies. There will be nearly 6 billion people in the Asia–Pacific by 2050. The increasing frequency and intensity of major storms has caused direct material and economic damage to the armed forces: following Hurricane Michael in October 2018 alone, Offutt Air Force Base required $5 billion in repairs.16 Even with $750 billion in funding, the U.S. defense budget fails to adequately address the costs of climate change. These effects will have particularly important security implications for major legacy hydrocarbon producers and countries that invested heavily in energy exploration and infrastructure during the 21st-century commodity … To reduce the national security implications of climate change, combatant commands are integrating climate-related impacts into their planning cycles, officials said. As the flow of refugees and immigration from uninhabitable fragile states increases under climate change, overpopulated areas will become fertile ground for non-state actors to destabilize governments. Videos from this event include: U.S. The Department of Defense budget, as assessed by the Chief Comptroller, actually showed a decrease in infrastructure spending from fiscal years 2018 to 2019, from $7.2 billion to $6.4 billion. Global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national security interests over the foreseeable future because it will aggravate existing problems—such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions—that threaten domestic stability in a number of countries.  Threat to security in turn, does not occur terror attack, he explains, captures everyone ’ s and. Resource scarcity such as water shortages is already becoming more prevalent instability to foot. 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